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Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Keep Calm and Keep on Rockin'

Keep Calm and Keep on Rockin'

In the immortal words of Neil Young: "Keep Calm and Keep on rockin'!"

And in the prescient words of Neil Young & Crazy Horse: "Shut it Down".

More on Keeping Calm and Rockin' in the free world (EARTH).

Shut It Down, Shut It Down, Shut It Down.

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At 3/12/2020 06:39:00 PM, Blogger Jim said...

In 2009 when we had the "Novel H1N1" flu make the rounds a lot of people got it but don't remember anything even remotely like what is going on in 2020. The herd is really spooked (even the horse in terms of touring) on this and maybe it will be bad like it was in 2009. The media at that time were still making profits on the 2008 crash so H1N1 got reported but not hourly like this.

It is an odd one since kids don't seem to get it, according to Pub Med it is a mild cold for 70 to 80% who get it and men seem to get it more then women. There is a testicular aspect to this that is under reported for men that is like the mumps.

60,000,000 people got H1N1 that was handled well I thought by the Obama administration (I worked in healthcare, washed my hands often and saw 500 people a day easy but kept a four foot distance) and now with 1,000 cases of this "Novel" flu in the United States here in North Carolina people are getting ready to shelter in place, all arts/music/plays/sports are being canceled, the major universities are telling students not to come back to campus after spring break and employers are allowing people to work from home in record numbers.

What is going on here?

Here are the stats on the Novel H1N1 flu all these years later...just to kind of put what is happening now into a historical perspective:

Damn, the media has spooked the Horse into not touring old barns! In 2009 in the midst of that pandemic Neil played Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United States. Now, he played down under in the summer but did Canada right at the tail end of flu season.

At 3/12/2020 06:42:00 PM, Blogger Jim said... is a link to the 2009 shows at Sugar Mountain set lists (that have added some great features I really like):

At 3/12/2020 07:08:00 PM, Blogger thrasher said...

Thanks for info & links Jim. appreciate your sharing here.

Well, certainly gives new meaning to March Madness?!

this is definitely a time when separating the wheat from the chaff is more essential than ever. fortunately, most of us around here are pretty savvy to a lot of the BS. They saw the end game here long ago and have been well prepared by looking forward and not looking back.

here's the cure: Keep calm, crank up the disCERNment to 10, turn off the news & build a garden.

be well,

At 3/12/2020 08:51:00 PM, Blogger Flyingscotzman said...

No, the media have NOT spooked the Horse into not touring.

Some things, like horror films and rollercoasters, can be anxiety-inducing but are also mostly harmless. But other things are scary for good reason: to inspire us to take action against them.

Neil (like most environmentalists who have studied the huge risk of animal-based viruses mutating) is acutely aware of just how massively dangerous this virus could be if its spread isn't aggressively limited or slowed. And I think a lot of people are *completely* unaware of the danger, and this is going to cost lives; lots of them. Not *their* lives, necessarily, but those of our elderly relatives or neighbours.

No, it's not the flu. It has a significantly higher death rate and we have no immunity to it (yet). It grows exponentially: the number of cases can double and then double again and again within days, lulling us into a false sense of security early on, starting with a handful of cases and developing into thousands and then hundreds of thousands within weeks. Which is one reason why enforced social distancing is working well to very straightforwardly nip it in the bud in some Asian countries, by reducing the amount of people each carrier passes it on to. It is too late to nip it in the bud now in many countries, but its passage through the population can still be slowed so the health care system can manage cases more effectively.

And yes, the estimated death rate of 1-5% does sound rather insignificant on paper: "almost everyone recovers! Hardly anybody dies!". But this is one area where gut instinct is misleading. In a population as massive as 8 BILLION, 1% could translate to many millions of people worldwide, if it were not contained. Many more millions if the percentage is higher. That's a worst-case scenario, but a sadly plausible one.

THIS is why Neil is taking this virus deadly seriously, because it poses a very real risk not just to him and his band (who are in their seventies also), but also his audience and indeed the entirety of the general public. A virus is most dangerous when it is allowed to spread. Stopping it might now be implausible, but slowing its spread could be the difference between a genuine world-wide disaster and a relative storm in a teacup (with apologies to the relatives of those who have died). For this reason we can expect event cancellations to be actively enforced in the coming weeks.

(And yes, for sure, keep calm: I agree with this bit absolutely. Panicing doesn't make anything easier. And, to lighten the mood for a second, the odds of survival are still strongly in our favour, as individuals).

But collectively, the reality is that some people we know, either in real life or online (and mostly those who are elderly and/or with medical conditions), are most probably going to die.

For emphasis: this isn't just a hyped-up common cold that is going to make a lot of people mildly ill. It *is* going to make a lot of people mildly ill, but also a relatively small percentage (and even a small percentage of the population is a sizeable amount of people, world-wide) of our friends and loved ones are likely to die.

That's a pretty stark way of putting it. And hopefully in a few weeks or months the vast majority of us can look back and celebrate at collectively dodging a bullet. That's the best-case scenario. And at heart, I am optimist! Except when it comes to Archives Vol 2 and "July".


At 3/12/2020 09:39:00 PM, Blogger Joel_Grant said...

@Scotsman - well said.

This is not media hype. This is not a minor blip. The stock market understands the seriousness of the situation. Almost all of the gains in the last three years have been lost in the last few weeks. They are pricing in the fact that people are going to have to take steps to avoid contact with other people, insofar as that is possible. Businesses all over the world are going to die and leave holes in our supply chain and holes in workers' income.

The NCAA men's and women's championships have been cancelled. The NBA games have been cancelled. In my state, Washington, the state has banned gatherings of over 250 people in the three largest counties in the state.

My wife works at a hospital that is at the very epicenter of this catastrophic virus. There are no hospital volunteers available, so the hospital employees, including my wife, have to take turns at the volunteer desks.

The local Costcos are now jammed all the time with people panic-buying. Supermarkets have been running low on basic supplies such as TP.

And our federal government - sorry MAGA cultists - is completely falling down on the job. Banning travel from other countries is, according to the actual epidemiological experts, a useless effort. What we need is a coordinated national response - widespread testing (still extremely scarce in this country), economic mitigation (pausing payroll taxes is a good way to bleed necessary programs) such as child care, free testing and healthcare for victims and potential victims - on and on.

This is already a disaster. It is getting worse literally by the day. This is not a partisan political hit job. It is a pandemic and we are all potentially at risk. We all need to pull together because these are desperate times. Do not underestimate the dangers and do not carry on as normal.

We are not all doomed but the death toll is going to outstrip anything else in our lifetimes and we need to deal with the fact that life has changed.

At 3/13/2020 08:05:00 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

Keep calm....rock on....don't listen to main medias controlled by corporations...grow a nature....excercise....never liked crowds or cities...keep on rockin in the free world.

At 3/13/2020 09:04:00 AM, Blogger Flyingscotzman said...

Unknown: While all of this is intelligent advice in general, I'm not sure it's going to be a particular effective defense against a highly contagious virus that has already started killing people and is rapidly growing exponentially.

One person unwittingly spreads it to two, those two unwittingly spread it to four, those four spread it to eight. And pretty soon, sooner than you would instinctively presume, it is in to the hundreds of thousands. That's not intended to be a precise explanation of the growth rate of this virus, but you see the point.

The fact that I have a nice garden to sit in (and that I am -relatively- young and in good health) doesn't necessarily protect me, and it *certainly* doesn't help those who have to live in more crowded areas, or are elderly or in poor health. So my humble opinion (yes, I know, you don't hear that expression from me very often!) is that a lot more concern is required.

There are times when massive caution is instinctive but also unnecessary, of course. If you want to dance around your living room but are scared the neighbours might see (the British people here will relate to this), your caution is mostly just inhibition stopping you from enjoying yourself. This is a little different, though, because people are going to die: they are already dying. And people aren't aware of the threat.

This is an abnormal virus, one with *significant* risk. And it's important because how we react may be the difference between a relative handful of unfortunate people dying and a lot of unfortunate people dying.

We all know people who are vulnerable, and we need to do our best to protect them, as individuals and collectively as nations. I have no knowledge whatsoever on which government responses are going to be most effective, but here in the UK, it is worrying how our government seems to be doing very little until it is too late. The most effective response so far seems to be coming from those countries that have acted early and decisively; though this may vary between regions.


At 3/13/2020 09:18:00 AM, Blogger Flyingscotzman said...

Joel: all the best to your wife in the coming weeks. There will be some new challenges for all involved in healthcare I am sure. I send her my best wishes, my admiration and my thanks.

Good point, too, on the knock-on effect on businesses.

"Keep calm and don't carry on as normal" may well be the best attitude to have!


At 3/13/2020 04:10:00 PM, Blogger akiv1971 said...

Kids don't have symptoms but still can transmit. Effecting mostly older people, but many bad cases of people in their 40s. Check out Joe Rogan's podcast from earlier this week with Virus expert, scary stuff


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